Fighting Fear

Having returned from the 2011 ASHRAE Annual Conference and AHR Expo in Las Vegas (and digging out from 2+ feet of snow upon my return to Chicago!), and taking a bit of time to reflect on this year's events, there is little doubt in my mind that the industry as a whole is much more optimistic than it was a year ago. Manufacturers are excited about what appears to be small but steady growth, suppliers are excited about renewed interest from both OEM's and distributors, and contractors and technicians finally seem to feel as though jobs are coming back their way.

But with all this optimism also comes some deeply rooted concerns. And chief among them is a topic that could slow any recovery in the HVACR marketplace to a crawl - refrigerant availability. Now it's logical to argue that this couldn't possibly be a reason for worry. But unfortunately, it's a very real possibility. Last year, in fact, there were several weeks when R-410A was in short supply. In fact, it was easier to get R-22 than it was R-410A. Other refrigerants also were difficult to acquire. And the reason is simple: the components necessary to make these refrigerant blends are becoming scarcer. Countries such as China that supply some of the raw materials used in refrigerant manufacturing are keeping increasing amounts for their own use. And there is no sign that that trend is going to change. Heightened tensions in places such as Egypt and the elsewhere in the Middle East certainly won't help bring the cost of those raw materials DOWN.

So what is the best way to fight this fear? In simple terms, BE EDUCATED. Talk to your refrigerant suppliers directly and honestly. Find out what they are hearing from others on the street, their counterparts in other areas of the country, etc. At this year's show, I had several frank discussions with folks from Airgas, DuPont and Arkema. I can assure you that these companies and their representatives want nothing more than to make sure the proper information is relayed to you, the working HVACR professional.

Fear doesn't help anyone. It erodes confidence, and sometimes causes individuals to make rash or improper decisions. It most certainly drives us to be more cautious, sometimes to our own detriment. I'm not saying that to fight that fear we all need to go out tomorrow and fly in the face of rationality by doing something outlandish or that could threaten your business (so no, don't go and buy 10 pallets of R-410A now). But striking a balance and fighting fear with proper information and education just might help make 2011 your best year yet. We're all hoping it is.